Friday, June 19, 2009

WhatIfSports calls Eagles Super Bowl Season

Dave Spadaro of wrote an article about what WhatIfSports predicted for the 2009 Eagles.

"We use a simulation software that we've been building for almost 10 years (since 2000) that we've been honing for the NFL. We've also been doing it for baseball, basketball and hockey ... that takes into account every possible statistical interaction of the players on the field. By using all of the interactions to come up with probabilities for what could happen on each specific play, we simulate every single play of every single game to come up with an outcome.

Spadaro then goes on to show that this statistical machine has been accurate:
They've been on a roll… North Carolina to dominate the NCAA basketball tournament, Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl (by four points), the Phillies over the Rays in the World Series, the Celtics taking out the Lakers in last year's NBA Finals (in exactly six games), Detroit over Pittsburgh in the 2008 Stanley Cup (as of the end of the regular season) and last year's March Madness, where they hit every game from the Sweet 16 through the Championship and finished in the 99.9+ percentile on every major bracket pick'em.

Defense will lead the way. According to all the numbers crunching and the analysis, the Eagles defense -- led by Trent Cole's 11 sacks, Asante Samuel's five interceptions and Stewart Bradley's 71 solo tackles -- will allow a league-low 13.4 points per game against a schedule featuring six games against teams that made the playoffs last season.

Offensively Eagles will average 22.4 points per game. Donovan McNabb will toss 21 touchdown passes and only 11 interceptions while completing 56.2 percent of his passes for 3,449 yards. Brian Westbrook is on line to gain 1,059 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns on 241 attempts. He will also catch 49 passes and score another 3 touchdowns and account for 1,534 total yards and 11 touchdowns . McCoy, the rookie whose numbers are hard to project, is slated to run for 534 yards and score 6 touchdowns and to chip in with 25 receptions and another 2 scores. Desean Jackson is projected to catch 59 passes for 848 yards and 4 TDs. Brent Celek is down for 34 catches, 443 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Spadaro does note that the machine does not take into account for injury's to key players like McNabb or Westbrook.
These predictions are interesting, and they provide an optimistic outlook for the 2009 season, but they don't mean anything. Until the Eagle's go out on the field and prove these statistics rights (or hopefully better) than this is just another bold prediction on the Eagle's Website.

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